Anarchy: Uganda cannot sustain a North African style of revolution

Members of the public raise their hands in surrender during the riots in Kampala. 

By Julius Barigaba
Posted  Monday, May 2 2011 at 14:09

Even as the country descends into anarchy, the possibility of a North African style revolution in Uganda is still not on the horizon, say political scientists.

Commenting on the last week’s events that saw opposition leader Kizza Besigye brutalised for the fourth time in a fortnight, political commentators say that with the military and civilian forces solidly behind him after a recent raft of promotions, the current people-led protests pose no immediate threat to President Yoweri Museveni.

Just when he appeared to have caved in to opposition demands and pressures on his government in the wake of high fuel and food prices, all hell broke loose last week as security forces put on a show that is certain to lead to further chaos and bloodshed.

A day after regaining his freedom, on Thursday last week opposition strong man Dr Kizza Besigye was accosted in his car, three kilometres from the city centre, having driven from his home 21 kilometres northeast of the capital.

Plain clothes security men, led by one Gilbert Bwana Arinaitwe, used a hammer and pistol to shatter the windows of Besigye’s car.

After a three-hour shower of tear gas and pepper spray, the Forum for Democratic Change leader was dragged out of his car together with his aides, beaten up and later stuffed into the narrow space between the floor and seats of a police pick-up truck, driven away; and later arraigned at the Kasangati Court.

Political historians say, the regime has now gone the full cycle of the seven preconditions for a revolution. However, the one missing link is support of the security forces.

“Our state security has an anarchical mind, firmly grounded in this regime’s culture. As we know, the ruling party’s political school teaches that human beings are just biological substances and the only people are those who agree with the regime. In that regard, we are not likely to see a revolution but anarchy,” said Dr Mwambutsya Ndebesa, professor of history at Makerere University.

Dr Ndebesa says Uganda’s protests are more in the fashion of the uprisings against Gaddafi; they lack the spark of the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions at the start of this year, which were both galvanised by support from the armed forces.

“The determinant force for a revolution is the military (joining with the people). From what we have seen, the behaviour of our security forces cannot lead to a revolution because the military here is akin to Gaddafi’s,” he argued.

Other factors hamper the kind of mass uprisings that the opposition wants. First, most of Uganda’s population is rural. It takes time for issues to crystallise clearly among rural populations who do not entirely depend on a monetised economy for their day-to-day demands.

It is also feared that an uprising can degenerate into an ethnic-based movement, a development that would be counterproductive — this very government came to power on an ethnic ticket of southern Bantu resisting Nilotic oppression.

The current reign of terror, insiders say, points at a leadership in disarray. The response to these protests has taken on dimensions that were not part of the original plan because central command has been lost.

Influential business lobby, Kampala City Traders Association, had threatened to join the fray protesting the hiked trade license fees recently introduced. Against this pressure Museveni made concessions lest he risk paralysing what is left of the country’s economic activity.

At the start of the campaign on April 11, police chief Kale Kayihura favoured giving police escort to the opposition leaders on their Walk to Work protests. But an angry Museveni asked why Besigye should be afforded such luxury. “Are we now going to turn police into a force to escort couples on their wedding?” he is said to have asked.

Thus, Museveni gave the orders for Besigye to be roughed up, every time he attempts his protests. So far, police have killed five people since April 11, including a two-year old in Masaka, west of Kampala. By the time we went to press, there were unconfirmed reports of more people killed during Friday’s shooting in the city. Many more victims are nursing bullet wounds.

Schools and hospitals have not been spared from fumes of tear gas, while about 200 protestors are locked up in various places around the country.