Challenges for Uganda weighing on President Museveni

Kampala

President Museveni and his NRM party were full of chest thumping and backslapping after the February 18 elections in which he got 68 per cent of the vote and the party about 75 per cent of parliamentary seats.

The protests over rising costs of living in the weeks that followed offered the ruling party a reality check and a quick reminder that winning votes was the easy part; keeping voters happy is much harder. Here are some numbers that should put the challenge in perspective and give the new Cabinet announced over the weekend some food for thought.

Out of 390,000 Ugandans who finish tertiary education every year, only 113,000 are absorbed in formal employment – less than 10,000 jobs advertised annually. Figures from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics show that 1,500 Ugandans apply for every 10 jobs advertised and this figure grows higher by the day.

With the third-highest population growth rate in the world (a million Ugandans are born each year), our population is expected to double to 60 million by 2030 and reach 130 million by 2050. Agriculture employs over 70 per cent of those in the work force but with agricultural productivity slowing or stagnant, that represents more people doing less. In fact, Uganda has the lowest productivity per worker in the region; we need three people to do what one Kenyan does in the same time, a recent study shows.

Where is the problem?
Godber Tumushabe, a public policy analyst, says the problem lies in government not getting its priorities right. “Right now government is spending its money on consumption or postponed consumption,” Mr Tumushabe says, pointing out that only 25 per cent of the current budget was allocated to productive sectors like land, trade and tourism. That figure shrinks considerably when the supplementary budget – most of which went to election consumption activities – is factored in.

NRM officials, including President Museveni, say the government has spent money on physical infrastructure like roads and power dams as well as investing in social infrastructure like education and health care.

Moses Byaruhanga, a political assistant to the President, says developing physical infrastructure and delivering services are the key challenges facing the new government. Levi Ochieng, a political risk analyst, however warns of “historical materialism” whereby the government, having been in power for many years, offers basic services in exchange for a winner-takes-it-all monopoly on decision-making. “The recent riots, whether you like it or not, shows there is resentment of the regime after 25 years,” Mr Ochieng says. “Legitimacy is about consensus; people trusting you, not just giving services but giving people a chance to have a say.”

Where is the problem?
Redeeming that image and treating citizens as clients is the biggest challenge the new government faces, Mr Ochieng says. It is a point Mr Tumushabe raised separately, warning of a “near total breakdown of public trust in government” and a need to reinvest in rebuilding that confidence. “The lack of stability in governance and constitutionalism has created uncertainty which makes it difficult for government to intervene in a robust manner even in economic matters,” he said. Mr Byaruhanga, however, disagrees. “The trust is there,” he says, “but what people want is that trust to match with their expectations of good services.”

The new Cabinet is President Museveni’s first attempt at rebuilding that confidence. Mr Byaruhanga says the appointment of Amama Mbabazi as Prime Minister with a deputy, Moses Ali, to focus on government business in the House, will improve oversight of government programmes.

Other technocrats such as district chief administrative officers, Mr Byaruhanga adds, are to be put on performance contracts to ensure efficiency. However, while the appointment of businesswoman Maria Kiwanuka and engineer Irene Muloni to run the key ministries of Finance and Energy, respectively, has been received well, most of the appointees have disappointed. “That Cabinet line-up looks more like loyalists being rewarded and that has been the problem of the NRM,” says Mr Ochieng. Mr Tumushabe is more withering in his criticism: “If that line-up doesn’t tell us that the status quo will continue, it tells us that things will get worse.”

Weighing Cabinet
Critics say the appointment of Mr Mbabazi, a subject of two parliamentary investigations over allegations of abuse of office and influence-peddling, as well as wikileaks allegations involving oil payments (he strongly denies all allegations and none have been proven in court) indicate that Mr Museveni will put loyalty ahead of integrity and efficacy.

Donors have already warned of aid cuts and other sanctions. In a letter signed by Kundhavi Kadiresan, the out-going World Bank’s representative in Uganda, a couple of months ago, the donors said “the undeniable lack of government action to follow up on cases of grand corruption is a key area of development partner concern”.

With growing demands and a young, jobless and restless population, it is in Mr Museveni’s interest to become efficient and punish corruption; after all, good governance pays. World Bank research shows that countries that clamp down on corruption and improve rule of law can get a 400 per cent “governance dividend” seen in a four-fold increase in per capita incomes and a 75 per cent reduction in child mortality.

Many watchers of Mr Museveni’s regime, right from 1986, say he has been able to stay in power by being inefficient, not efficient. An inefficient government that does just enough to be better than the past always has more room for improvement – and more promises to make at every election cycle, they say.

This results into or feeds off a system of patronage in which rewards go to the most loyal, not necessarily the most deserving, until citizen demand for entitlements is chipped away and reduced to clamour for the crumbs that fall off the gravy train. Support is then bought or rented at regular electoral cycles until the greedy citizens demand more regular payments or a say in how the table is laid out and the grub apportioned.

Tactical game?
It is too soon to read any seismic shifts in the monetisation of the last election or the walk-to-work protests but at least one fact has become clear: Mr Museveni can stay in power by letting his cronies steal in exchange for continued loyalty to him.

Or he can stay in power by clamping down on corruption, allocating resources efficiently and making everyone wealthier and happier. Some of the new names in the Cabinet show that Mr Museveni wants to have the omelettes that come with the Presidency – but many of the old names suggest he is not willing or brave enough to break any political eggs.

dkalinaki@ug.nationmedia.com